A buyer tells your agent they will "take a mortgage for the rest". The agent marks the lead hot, books a viewing and moves on. Three weeks later the lender's answer arrives and the deal is gone.
That gap between "I'll get finance" and "the finance came through" is getting wider. The latest mortgage finance figures for Egypt in 2026 show more money lent on fewer contracts, and a much larger amount on the average contract.
This article reads the numbers the way a brokerage should: what they actually count, what they say about who can still buy with finance, and how to find out in the first conversation whether a buyer's mortgage plan is real.
In brief: FRA-supervised mortgage companies lent EGP 27.6 billion in H1 2026, up 24.9%, but contracts fell 9% to 7,945. The average loan rose to about EGP 3.5 million. Most of these contracts are developers' instalment books sold to lenders. At today's rates a longer term barely lowers the instalment, so income decides who qualifies.
Where mortgage finance stands in 2026
The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) supervises Egypt's non-bank mortgage finance companies. Its figures for January to June 2026, reported by Masrawy on 27 August and analysed again by Al Borsa on 20 October, are these:
| H1 2025 | H1 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value of finance granted | EGP 22.1 billion | EGP 27.6 billion | +24.9% |
| Number of contracts | 8,729 | 7,945 | −9% |
| Average per contract (our calculation) | about EGP 2.53 million | about EGP 3.48 million | +37% |
| Refinancing | EGP 1.83 billion | EGP 2.76 billion | +50.6% |
Cairo took about 66% of the value and 54% of the clients.
The full-year picture is similar. Al Borsa's series shows finance granted rising from EGP 8.13 billion in 2021 to EGP 42.6 billion in 2025, about five times as much, while the number of contracts only a little more than doubled.
Two caveats before reading anything into this. First, the FRA data covers only the companies it supervises. Mortgages that banks write directly are not in it, a point Mohamed El-Bostany, head of the Real Estate Developers Association, made to Al Borsa. Second, the decline is slowing: the cumulative fall in contracts was 21.3% at the end of the first quarter and 9% at mid-year, and June contracts were up 19.5% on June 2025.
Interest rates have not moved for most of the year. The Central Bank of Egypt cut by 100 basis points in February 2026 and has held since. On 24 September it kept the overnight deposit rate at 19% and the lending rate at 20%.
Bigger loans, fewer buyers: what is actually happening
The value grew while the number of contracts fell. The lenders and the developers' association quoted by Al Borsa put that down to prices, not to more people buying with finance.
Ayman Abdel Hamid of Al Oula Mortgage Finance put it plainly: the rise in the average loan from about EGP 2.5 million to about EGP 3.4 million is "not real growth in demand". It is higher unit prices, plus a group of buyers who have dropped out of the market. El-Bostany's version: the buyer "buys within their income, not their wishes".
The analysts are more cautious about calling it a trend. Nada Farag of Team Securities expects value to keep growing faster than contract numbers, but called it premature to treat the gap as permanent. Haitham Fahmy of Prime Securities read the push for longer terms as a sign of inflation pressure on borrowers.
For a broker the practical reading is this. The contracts that still get signed are, on average, much larger. The data can't show exactly which buyers dropped out, but if the people quoted are right, the buyer who needs a mortgage for a mid-priced apartment is the one most likely to be squeezed. If your pipeline has a lot of those buyers, expect more of them to stall at the lender. This is the same pattern the top developers' sales showed earlier this year: the money held up while the number of units fell.
Most of this finance starts with the developer, not the buyer
The headline figure hides something brokers often get wrong when they talk to buyers about finance.
According to Al Borsa's reading of the FRA data, 7,461 of the 7,945 contracts in the first half were purchased portfolios, down from 8,339 a year earlier. In a portfolio deal, a developer that sold units on an instalment plan sells those remaining instalments to a mortgage finance company and gets cash now. The buyer usually keeps paying the same plan, but the payments end up with the finance company.
That leaves only a few hundred contracts outside the portfolio deals, at least among FRA-supervised companies. So when a buyer says "I'll take a mortgage", first find out what they mean. Often it is the developer's own payment plan, which may later be financed behind the scenes. A buyer who wants a lender to pay the developer upfront for a resale or a ready unit is in a much smaller, stricter market.
Two things follow:
- For off-plan buyers, the developer's payment plan is the finance. Compare plans, not mortgage offers. The objection-handling piece covers restructuring a down payment, so take that as read.
- For resale and ready-to-move buyers, a real mortgage application is involved, with income checks, a valuation and documents. That takes weeks, and the unit has to be eligible for finance in the first place.
What a mortgage instalment costs at today's rates
This is the table to keep. It is the monthly instalment on EGP 1 million borrowed, by annual rate and term, on a standard repayment loan. It is illustrative: real offers add fees, insurance and the lender's own margin, and variable-rate loans move with the central bank.
| Annual rate | 10 years | 15 years | 20 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8% (low-income initiative) | EGP 12,133 | EGP 9,557 | EGP 8,364 |
| 12% (middle-income initiative) | EGP 14,347 | EGP 12,002 | EGP 11,011 |
| 22% | EGP 20,670 | EGP 19,058 | EGP 18,571 |
| 25% | EGP 22,749 | EGP 21,355 | EGP 20,982 |
| 28% | EGP 24,897 | EGP 23,706 | EGP 23,426 |
Multiply by the loan amount in millions. A buyer borrowing EGP 2.5 million at 25% over 15 years is looking at roughly EGP 53,400 a month.
Read the bottom three rows across and you see why "let's make it longer" stops working at commercial rates. At 22%, the monthly interest alone on EGP 1 million is about EGP 18,300. Doubling the term from ten to twenty years cuts the instalment by about 10%. At 12%, the same stretch cuts it by about 23%.
That is also why the income bar has jumped. Abdel Hamid told Al Borsa that financing EGP 1 million now needs a monthly income of around EGP 45,000, against about EGP 30,000 before rates rose. That is one lender's estimate, not a rule, and every lender sets its own ratio, but it matches the table: a EGP 20,000 instalment is a heavy share of a EGP 45,000 salary.
The subsidised initiatives are a different market
The government's mortgage initiatives still price far below commercial rates, but they are narrower than many buyers assume.
Since 15 October 2025, new loans under the middle-income initiative carry 12% declining (up from 8%), and the low-income initiative 8% declining (up from 3%), according to the decision reported by El Watan at the time. Eligibility has income caps, and the units and their prices are set by the Social Housing and Mortgage Finance Support Fund in each announcement.
For most brokerages this means one thing: a buyer who quotes "8%" or "12%" to you is quoting a programme for specific units and specific incomes. It is not the rate a lender will offer on a compound unit you are selling. Correct that early and kindly, before the buyer builds a budget around it.
Five questions that tell you whether a buyer's finance is real
None of this needs a credit check. It needs five questions in the first or second conversation, asked plainly, and the answers written on the lead. This is the finance-specific layer on top of the five facts to qualify any buyer.
1. "Are you paying through the developer's plan, or through a bank or finance company?"
The two are different journeys with different timelines. Most off-plan buyers mean the first without knowing it.
2. "Has a lender already given you a figure?"
A written pre-approval or at least a quote with an amount and a rate is the strongest signal you can get. "I'll ask the bank" is a plan, not finance.
3. "Roughly what monthly instalment are you comfortable with?"
Then use the table. If the instalment they name implies a loan half the size of the gap they need to fill, you know now, not after the viewing.
4. "Is your income from a salary, or your own business?"
Ask which income documents the lender accepts. Business owners and freelancers often struggle to document income; Ehab Omar of Qastali Mortgage Finance named better income-assessment tools for them as one of the market's open needs.
5. "Is the unit you want ready and registered?"
For a direct mortgage the lender has to accept the property, and that usually means complete ownership papers. Ask the lender what it needs for this specific unit, before the buyer falls in love with it.
What to watch for the rest of 2026
Three things will tell you whether the squeeze is easing.
- The central bank. Rates have held since February. A cut would lower variable-rate instalments directly; a hold keeps the table above roughly where it is.
- The FRA's monthly and quarterly figures. For the full year, Abdel Hamid expects about EGP 50 billion and Omar between EGP 55 billion and EGP 60 billion. Watch the contract count more than the value. A rising count would mean buyers are coming back, not just prices going up.
- Refinancing. It rose 50.6% in the half, but June's refinancing fell 64.4% year on year to EGP 329 million. If rates drop, watch whether it picks up again, and be ready for past buyers asking whether they should switch.
The draft real estate developers' law matters here too. If developers have to hold buyers' money in a separate account per project, that could affect how they sell instalment portfolios to lenders. It is still a draft, and nobody can say yet whether it will.
How V Estate helps
V Estate lets you add custom fields to a lead, so a team can record the payment route (developer plan or lender), the stated monthly budget and whether a pre-approval exists. You can then filter the pipeline by those fields and see how many "hot" leads depend on finance that has not been confirmed.
Start with every lead that says "mortgage"
Take every open lead whose notes say "mortgage", "bank" or "finance". For each one, check whether you know the payment route and the monthly budget. Any lead where you know neither is not hot yet, whatever stage it is sitting in. Call those buyers first with question 1, and within a few days you will know how much of your pipeline is real.
Sources
- Al Borsa News, 20 October 2026: Mortgage finance, between a jump in value and a shrinking client base
- Masrawy, 27 August 2026: Up 25%, mortgage finance grants clients EGP 28 billion in H1 2026 (FRA data)
- Banker News, 4 October 2026: Mortgage contracts fall 9% in six months while finance jumps 24.9%
- Egypt Today, 24 September 2026: CBE holds interest rates steady, keeps deposit rate at 19%
- El Watan News, 16 October 2025: Mortgage initiative rates for low and middle incomes raised from 3% to 8% and from 8% to 12%
